Avoid ‘Rock-Paper-Scissors’ in Business Decision-Making


One of the biggest problems people have with decision making is a desire to know too many facts, their theory being that if you have enough facts the decision will make itself. Other manages are instant decision makers. They don’t need to know every fact first. They accept that they are going to make wrong decisions and are confident enough in themselves to know that in most cases they are going to make the right one.

Decision making is (mainly) an instinctive process, rather than an analytical one. No amount of research reports can change that. The danger is that the more data people have to examine, the more likely they are to underestimate the importance of instinct.  Decision making is taking the analytical data, facts, figures, etc. and converting them into sensory perceptions. If you eliminate the ‘feeling’, you will not make very good decisions or you will not make them at all.

Some managers ignore the facts completely and some others use them to justify convenient solutions rather than the one the facts support. Needless to mention that it is difficult to make good decisions based on self-assuring or self-justifying bad conclusions.

The best use of facts (i.e. marketing date, reports, surveys, other people opinions, etc.) is not their literal reading but what they may indicate. What do the facts really indicate about trends, biases, conflicts, opportunities?

The most useful decision-making information may lie beyond the facts. Don’t be restricted only by what you already know.

Many executives are very depended on old facts or are basing decisions on what worked 20 years ago. Sound business decision-making is a constant process of staying current, of realizing how new information can change old decisions, of foreseeing the future!

Decisions are partly emotional. Therefore, it’s good to let them settle in for a period of time. Are there any obvious considerations that haven’t been considered? If none occur in the first (let’s say) 24-hours, this means they will probably never occur (or by the time they do it will be too late).

If you immediately start a second thought, a decision you have made it will most likely prove a bad one, not because it was the wrong decision, but because you underestimated its chance for success. A lot of questionable decisions have worked because the people who made them were determined to make them work, and a lot of good decisions have failed because the people who made them never got over their doubts.   

Rock-paper-scissors - the ancient children’s game - has determined the outcome of millions of extremely important decisions. No one is saying you should use rock-paper-scissors to determine your next business decision. But think that some of your competitors may make decisions that way.

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Predicting failure: tell-tale signs and fatal combinations


Obviously, it is not advisable to extend credit to a company that is about to fail. The ability to predict business failure before the event has been the ‘holy grail’ of financial analysis for more than 50 years. Normally, there is a few years’ waiting before a business fails. A sudden and unexpected collapse is unusual.

Since the 1970’s increasingly sophisticated models have been developed to assist the prediction of failure. However, the following simple rules should not be neglected: 

Tell-tale signs

There are several signs that a business may be heading for difficulties:

·         It has only one product

·         It relies on a single customer or supplier

·         It is the only one in the sector showing profit improvement

·         It uses a small, unknown firm of auditors

·         The directors are leaving (or they are selling shares)

Fatal combinations

Identifying a number of uncomfortable factors in the annual accounts, should be taken as a warning sign. A business may:

·         be operating a depreciation policy that is out of line with other similar businesses, in order to produce profit

·         have negative operating cash-flow

·         have debt that is continually rising

·         have sale-and-lease-back agreements

·         have made a series of rights issues

Combine these with:

·         A low-quality board of directors, with little experience

·         Weak non-executive directors

The result will almost certainly be fatal!


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Business Suitability Assessment

If you don’t like what you are doing, it can be difficult to be successful at business. If things are not going the way you would like them to go, it is possible that you may not be in the right business.

THEREFORE
Ask yourself some questions:
Do you enjoy your work?
Is your business growing, stagnating or declining?
What level of risk are you comfortable with?
What levels of debt are you comfortable with?
Can your business generate enough revenues to repay your debt?
Are the stress levels acceptable in terms of your own health and the effects of your family life?
Are you making a reasonable living?
Identify your business preferences:
What can you do well?
What do you enjoy doing?
Can you identify any of the following warning signs?
A feeling you are lacking all the skills to run your business.
Sleeplessness and high stress.
Constant worry about money owed to you or payments due.
Family life problems.
Loss of motivation and pleasure in the business.
Feeling “burnt out” and reluctant to face the day when you wake up in the morning.
Your business is declining.
You are doing too much by yourself.
FIND BELOW A GUIDE OF UNDESIRABLE BUSINESS SITUATIONS

Businesses with high stress levels (in the end you have only one life)
Lack of experience in the specific industry (the result could be catastrophic)
Marginal businesses (some businesses are not capable of generating satisfactory revenues)
Undercapitalized businesses (the consequences can be a long struggle to meet financial commitments, to find funds for new growth or for replacing equipment, etc)
No clear competitive advantage (competitive advantages eroded by new forms of competition)
Sunset industries (are you in a sector with limited future?)
WHAT CAN YOU DO ABOUT IT?
The first and most difficult step is to understand that often you can’t properly assess your own business situation. Usually you do need support from outside advisors who can stand back and view the bigger picture Your option for change may include: (1) Preparing your business for sale and planning to buy or start a more suitable business (or return to employment) (2) Gaining more business skills through training or through working for a business in the industry you want to enter (3) Calling for a management consultant to help you change or rescue the business.

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Supply Chain Finance in Practice

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) provides significant opportunities for both buyers and sellers. Technology plays an increasingly important role in the delivery of effective SCF solutions, both to automate the exchange of information between buyers, sellers and banks but also to integrate the physical supply chains. This leads to more efficient and timely financing, specifically adapted to the needs of each company.
In other articles of ReplayBusiness.com, we discussed the opportunities in the SCF from a bank’s perspective (http://www.replaybusiness.com/2013/03/opportunities-in-supply-chain-finance.html) and we presented a guide with the components of an integrated SCF solution (http://www.replaybusiness.com/2013/03/a-guide-to-trade-and-supply-chain.html).
In this article we mention some of the practical issues relating the financial supply chain such as costs, legal & accounting, bank, technology, etc. and we’ll present the benefits of SCF for buyers & sellers.
Costs: As long as the volumes are sufficient, SCF is (generally) set up without cost to the buyer. However, costs are paid by sellers which may include set-up fees, structuring costs, regulatory costs where applicable (i.e. stamp duties, withholding taxes, etc.), risk premium for credit risk, operational fees and management time. These costs are generally offset by improved financing terms for suppliers.
Bank considerations: Banks providing SCF solutions are concerned with the buyer-related risk. Some of these risks are: The jurisdiction in which the buyer is located, how to enforce buyer obligations to pay irrevocably the payments processed through the SCF structure, how to be recognized as a creditor (in case of the buyer’s insolvency), fraud events, etc.
Legal & Accounting issues: Companies need to review restrictive covenants in place with their existing banks to ensure that they have the right to enter into SCF transactions. Note that parties involved (buyers, sellers, banks) may have to report under different accounting principles where the requirements may vary.
The role of inter-departmental communication: The success of a SCF solution relies on significant interaction between departments (mainly finance and procurement). In many companies individual departments work (more-or-less) independently. Therefore there is little integration of information flows. Dealing with this issue requires significant management attention and investment in systems and business processes.
Technology: When setting up an SCF programme, the technology platform is important. Most platforms are web-based providing an easy-to-use, low-cost interface for buyer and suppliers, with little additional h/w or s/w requirement. Initially, the number of exceptions may be relatively high but this is likely to be resolved over time.
BENEFITS OF SCF FOR BUYERS: Working capital and free c/f improvements, supply chain stability, cost savings (i.e. lower invoice settlement costs, etc.). In situations where buyers are heavily reliant on key suppliers, SCF is a good financial tool to create an incentive for partnership.
BENEFITS OF SCF FOR SELLERS: Additional access to capital, favourable SCF rates compared to alternative financing options, transparency, improved cash-flow forecasting, off-balance sheet benefits, savings on costs and fees (i.e. automated payments, no commitment fees, abilities to match tenor and amount to exact needs, etc.).
Supply Chain Finance is recognized as a win-win arrangement which is designed in a way that all participants (buyers, sellers, banks) can profit from it in one way or the other.


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A Guide to Trade and Supply Chain Finance Components

The term ‘supply chain finance’ itself is used in various ways within the industry. In this guide we present the components of the SCF solution and how they can contribute to a flexible financing strategy:   
Purchase Order Commitment to Pay
The buyer’s bank issues its commitment to pay the seller (at sight or upon maturity) once the seller ships and makes available the required documents that match the Purchase Order. Various covenants may also apply.


Pre-Shipment Finance
Pre-shipment finance (or Purchase Order financing) is made available to a seller based on a purchase order received from the buyer. This financing can cover all the necessary working capital needs of the seller (including raw materials, wages, packing costs and other pre-shipment expenses).
Warehouse Finance
Warehousing financing is a form of trade finance in which goods are held in a warehouse for the buyer, usually by the seller (or a 3rd-party), until needed.
Post-Shipment Finance
Post-shipment financing is provided to a seller using the receivables as collateral. The seller presents shipping documents as evidence of a receivable while the bank may also require a bill drawn on the buyer for goods exported.
More information may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named:’Export Collections Financing: What does purchasing a bill mean?’:
Reverse Factoring or Receivables Purchase
Reverse factoring (i.e. approved payables financing) allows sellers to sell their receivables and/or drafts relating to a particular buyer (or many buyers) to a bank at a discount as soon as they are approved by the buyer. This allows the buyer to pay at normal invoice/draft-date and the seller to receive early payment. In this case the bank relies on the creditworthiness of the buyer. The discount is based upon seller credit standing.
More information about factoring may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named: Understanding Factoring is not brain surgery’
Buyer Finance
A post-shipment finance loan on the buyer can be arranged, to cover the period until the goods are sold. On invoice due date, a payment is made to the seller by the proceeds of this loan.
Letters of Credit (import/standby/export)
A letter of credit - L/C (or documentary credit – D/C) is a written undertaking by a bank (issuing bank), issued on the instructions of the buyer (applicant) to the seller (beneficiary), to effect payment under stated conditions. In this case, documents travel through the banking channel and do not follow the goods.
More information about L/Cs may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named:’Types of Documentary Credits’
Forfaiting
Forfaiting is frequently used in the field of machinery and equipment, where there is a frequent demand from foreign buyers (mainly from developing economies) for deferred payment (up to the medium and long term). Any exporters that grant a deferred payment want to have their credit risk guaranteed. Forfaiting involves the purchasing of receivables (at a discount) from exporters. The forfaiter takes on all risks involved with the receivables.
More information about forfaiting may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named  'International Supply Chain Financing: Let’s go for Forfaiting
State-backed Receivables Finance
States, through their incentive packages and established export credit agencies, are partnering with exporters to mitigate cross-border risk in the supply chain. This type of State-backed receivables can be financed (at a discount) by the bank of the seller.
Confirming
If the seller has some doubt about the ability of the L/C opening bank (issuing bank) to arrange payment, he may request the buyer (opener of the L/C) to arrange for the L/C to be ‘confirmed’ by another bank (confirming bank), assuming the liability for payment, acceptance or negotiation of correctly presented documents under the L/C. In this case the confirming bank receives a confirmation commission (collected from the seller or is claimed from the issuing bank if so directed).
Asset-based Lending
A business loan secured by collateral (assets).
More information about this type of lending may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named Guide to SME Asset Based Finance
Collections
The concept of ‘collection’ is a compromise between Open Account Trading (favouring the buyer) and Payment in Advance (favouring the seller). Trade settlement by collection reduces (1) risk to both importer and exporter (buyer and seller) (2) delay in receipt of payment by exporter (seller), by using banks as intermediaries to ‘collect’ payment from the importer (buyer) for goods which the exporter (seller) has already sent.
Payments
Payments initiation from all appropriate channels; monitoring payments; clearing and settling payments to the parties accounts at their respective banks. Payments tracking services.
Insurance
Supply chain insurance products are designed to help protect profits against a failure in the supply chain.
FX spots/forwards/options trading
In the spot FX, the physical exchange of the currency pair takes place right at the point of trade. An FX forward, is an agreement to buy or sell an amount of foreign currency at a specific price for settlement at a pre-determined future date. FX option is an arrangement in which a party acquires the right but not the obligation to buy or sell a specific amount of a currency on a fixed date and at a fixed rate. Such products are used as a hedge against exchange-rate fluctuations.
Credit Risk Management
Credit risk is a seller’s risk of loss arising from a buyer that does not make payments as promised. Credit risk management provides support in anticipating risky positions and avoiding default.
More information about credit risk management may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named: ’Export Business: Things you can do to minimize the risk of failure’
Credit Insurance
Customer insolvency, bad debts, overdue accounts, commercial risks and political risks have to be taken into account when trading on credit terms. In the business-to-business transactions (B2B), customer credit is a fact of life. Credit insurance is the answer to helping companies manage their customer credit risk.
More information about credit insurance may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named:’The Importance of Credit Insurance’
Supply Chain Finance (SCF) is one of the most exciting and promising products in the banking industry. It improves the financial efficiency of the supply chain and substantially reduces the working capital of both buyers and sellers. It creates a true win-win of all the parties involved (buyers-sellers-banks-insurance companies) as a very attractive tool for diversified funding sources. Technology will play an increasingly important role in the delivery of effective SCF solutions, both to automate the exchange of information between buyers-sellers-banks-insurance companies, but also to integrate the financial and physical supply chains.
More information about SCF may be obtained from another article of ReplayBusiness.com named: Opportunities in the Supply Chain Finance’:

http://www.replaybusiness.com/2013/03/opportunities-in-supply-chain-finance.html


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Opportunities in the Supply Chain Finance

Supply Chain Finance (SCF) is a set of financial instruments that optimize the working capital of supply chain management processes. Banks today offer all necessary products to finance the customers’ entire supply chain. However, these products are often not viewed as being a part of an integrated SCF service offering, but have been sold and distributed autonomously, to solve only a specific customer need in one part of the supply chain. For example, a discounting of a deferred letter of credit supports the liquidity flow after production and shipping of goods. Hence, the product only covers a specific liquidity need after shipment without any links to alternative products available. While individual products can heavily contribute to facilitate working capital management, a full SCF service offering gains leverage and added value for businesses when products and services support their entire financial value chain.
If all of the banks’ products for SCF are put into an integrated service context, many opportunities arise for the customer. Businesses would be able to focus on their end-to-end need for SCF services, instead of dealing with an array of different bank's sales representatives focusing on selling separate products. Furthermore, solutions sourced from an integrated financial supply chain perspective have the potential to improve internal process efficiency and various financial ratios. The best products for the entire chain would be used rather than the best products for an autonomous link in the chain.
With a complete overview of their financial supply chain, businesses can also take a better position on their total risk position against currencies, countries and foreign banks. In some cases, customer will identify opportunities of eliminating excess use of products. Actually, a complete SCF service is needed to provide the business customer with a possibility to optimize their use of financial products across their supply chain.
A customer-centric financial supply chain approach gives rise to several challenges for a bank’s technological channels. Technology is not a restricting factor for banks to create a complete financial supply chain services. The challenge is rather to take advantage of current systems, while simultaneously create the organizational capabilities necessary to match technological possibilities with business opportunities.
Conclusion
An increasing amount of trade is conducted over an open bank account. This means that banks lose visibility of the information flow related to trades. This visibility can be recaptured with a complete SCF service offering approach and also provides possibilities to finance a larger deal of the customers’ transactions by the creation of new financing solutions.
Additionally, banks are able to
Differentiate on competence rather than product pricing.
Build closer customer relationships by achieving better knowledge and understanding of their customers’ businesses and financial ambitions.

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